Friday, December 28, 2007

India Infant Mortality and Nuclear Tests

The health effects of worldwide nuclear activities on India: Infant mortality and Under 5 Mortality
By R. Ashok Kumar, B.E., M.E., Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal,299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007. Tel No. 022- 23872061
e-mail: ashokuku@rediffmail.com
Copyright ©2015 Ramaswami Ashok Kumar
Note: Please Right click on the tables and figures to view them each in a separate tab

Abstract
1. Infant Mortality Rate and Under 5 Mortality Rate
The paper shows that the Indian infant mortality rate in the nuclear age (1945 onwards) has more than doubled compared to the pre-nuclear age and is statistically significant (95% confidence limits for a mean Relative Risk of 2.34 being 1.33 to 4.67 : Table 1). Nuclear activity worldwide during 1945 to 1999 has probably mainly contributed to an excess infant mortality in India of 22,676600(about 23 million infant deaths in the age group 0-1) compared to the period 1911-1945. See Figure 1. Further a study of the under 5 mortality rate shows that there is a similar doubling of the risk of under 5 mortality and with a similar holocaust(Table U5MRPRENN). The recommendations of the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR 2003) appear to support this assertion. The nuclear activities till 1993 have resulted in a total collective ionizing radiation dose commitment of 123 mSv per person based on World population of 5 billion assumed by UNSCEAR ( page 133, ECRR 2003).










When we consider the period 1946 to 1989, the yearly excess infant mortality over the annual mean during the period 1911-45(The control group of the prenuclear age), the following figures result(Table IMNA):





1a. Ten Year totals of Infant Mortality correlate extremely significantly with the Northern Hemisphere Adult Ingest and Inhale Radiation Dose due to Atmospheric Tests of Nuclear Weapons: 1945 to 1989: Linear regression: r= 0.72, degrees of freedom 43, p= 1.94E-8(Figure WIMP6070):






1b: Figure TYIMP63 identifies the culprit with a logarithmic fit of the ten year totals of infant mortality with the weapons dose: When the dose peaks at 1963, the ten year Infant Mortality Total also peaks.




1c. The percent annual population growth rate(compound) correlates with 10 year totals of Infant mortality extremely significantly(Figure AGRP).




1d. The annual growth rate of the India population resonates with the Northern Hemisphere ingest and inhale annual dose due to atmospheric test of nuclear weapons, 1945 to 1989(Figure PED):




To indicate a sense of the reality on the ground, Table 2 shows the calculation on the percent infant mortality excess relative risk per unit ECRR dose commitment. Compare this with the risk factor which ECRR cites for this birth effect: Percent increase in baseline rate per mSv (ECRR) parental exposure in year of conception: 0.05%. This 0.05% is got according to ECRR recommendations by computing dose according to ECRR model and including new weighting factors Wj and Wk .



Table 2: The excess relative risk in percent of infant mortality in India on account of global nuclear activity from 1945 till 1993 based on ECRR collective total effective dose commitment (123 mSv per person, see text).

The India U5MR
The figures of infant mortality and relative risks are also robust over the 0-4 infant mortality rates and mortality figures as shown in the Table U5MRPRENN below:



When man-made poisons are introduced into the biosphere infinitely more than the natural, nature reacts by doubling the risk prevalent prior to the introduction. Thus as seen in column 12h in the above table, the relative risk of 0-4 infant mortality in the nuclear age doubles compared to that in the prenuclear era( See Figure U5MRPRENN below). Compared to the data for infant mortality, the data readily available for 0-4 mortality was less. Still the robustness of the results is preserved. What a holocaust. Andrei Sakharov should have been immediately followed and implemented(1955). Rather than the two heads of state enjoying tea at a Texas ranch after all the damage has been initiated, never to be controlled.



This foresight is what is required rather than hindsight. Why then all the damages of the cold war? To what end? They are making the same mistake through new nuke deals. For example with India. What say have the citizens on this irreversible trend?


3.Correlation between ionizing radiation dose and infant mortality rate.
Let us now consider the radiation dose to the bone marrow of an “average child” born in 1950 in millirems. A study of the correlation between the Indian Infant Mortality Rate and this radiation dose shows that while the linear regression is statistically extremely significant during 1951 to 1999(r = 0.47,p=0.0006,degrees of freedom 47), there is no statistically significant correlation between the Indian Infant Mortality Rate during the pre-nuclear period 1911-1945 with this dose assumed to start from 1911 instead of 1951 and end by 1945(r = 0.32, p= 0.056, degrees of freedom 33)(Reference 2).

4.The correlation between radiation and All-India annual rainfall is shown below(Figure2) (Reference 4 and 5):





5.The correlation between ionizing radiation dose and excess infant mortality rate is brought out in Figure 3(Reference 4):






6.The dose to the parent has a pronounced and significant effect on Infant Mortality(Figure 4):





7. References and Notes

1. Reference for dose commitment for nuclear activities 1945 to 1993:Chris Busby,Rosalie Bertell, IS Feuerhake,Molly Scott Cato and Alexei Yablokov. 2003. 2003 Recommendations of the ECRR: The Health Effects of Ionising Radiation Exposure at Low Doses for Radiation Protection Purposes. Regulators’ Edition. Published on behalf of the European Committee on Radiation Risk. Green Audit. U.K.
2. For Section 1 and Figure 4, the radiation dose for the period 1951-80 has been taken from Figure 3: “Annual Radiation doses to the red bone marrow of the average child born in 1950 from diagnostic medical practices, nuclear weapons fallout and natural radiation: Risk of leukaemia calculated to the age 20 years,” in “Assessing Risks of Childhood leukaemia in Seascale” in the book Jones, Robin Russel and Richard Southwood (editors), 1987. Radiation and Health: The Biological Effects of Low-level Exposure to Ionising Radiation. Edited proceedings of a symposium, “The Biological Effects of Radiation,” sponsored by Friends of the Earth U.K. and Greenpeace International, and held between 24-25 November 1986 at the Hammersmith Hospital, London; Sir Richard Southwood, Chair. (London: John Wiley & Sons.). For the period beyond 1980 the doses are derived from these values. I have made no reconciliation between these dose values and the corresponding ECRR doses.
3. The sources for the infant mortality data for India are 1) Office of the Registrar General, Sample Registration Bulletin, Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi(Various issues); 2) Office of the Registrar General, Registrar General’s Newsletter, Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi( Various issues);3) Tata Services Ltd., Department of Economics and Statistics.1998. Statistical Outline of India 1998-99. Table 36, p46 and 4) Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 22 December 2005; 8:34:55 AM.
4. The source for growth of population, birth rate and population is Tata Services Ltd., Department of Economics and Statistics.1998. Statistical Outline of India 1998-99. Tables 34,35, pp45-46.
5. The source for the radiation doses for the studies reported above(Figures 2 , 3 and WIMP6070) is UNSCEAR 2000: Annex C: Exposures to the public from man-made sources of radiation: Table 16: Annual effective dose from radionuclides produced in atmospheric nuclear testing: Average annual effective dose(microsieverts): Northern Hemisphere. For Figure 4 the data for the dose is from that given in 2.
6. The rainfall data is from the website: Columbia University Website: http://ingrid.Ldgo.columbia.edu/Sources/Indices/.india/.rainfall/

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